The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
Managing
the transition/drawdown
•
Planning
for withdrawal of 30,000 US troops by March need to be
re-assessed
against the
growing security threat. We must have
a secure overall environment
in the
period running up to the caucus elections. The enemy will exploit
any
gaps.
Better to
lower domestic expectations now and link to positive progress
on
the political
timetable. Conditions
on the ground and the views of the Governing
Council/Transitional
Assembly must inform the decision.
•
On civilian
side, must not
adopt mindset that June represents a cut off point.
Will have
to stay engaged to assist the Iraqi transitional government find
its feet.
Need to
start thinking now about how this should best [be]
done.
Co-ordination
of policy
•
We need
to tighten up
high-level co-ordination between military, civil and
intelligence
elements, and between Coalition partners …”
575.
Mr Blair
gave President Bush a slightly revised version of Sir Jeremy’s
paper,
which
included a different message under the heading “Managing the
transition/
“We need to
look again at the levels and composition of US and UK
troops,
in theatre,
given the new political timetable. We must have a secure
overall
environment
in the period running up to the caucus elections. The enemy
will
exploit any
gaps. Conditions on the ground and the views of the Governing
Council/
Transitional
Assembly must inform the decision. We need US/UK troops capable
of
training
Iraqi forces as well as direct military and intelligence
tasks.”
576.
In the week
before President Bush’s visit, Sir Jeremy contacted
Mr Desmond
Bowen, the
Deputy Head of the Overseas and Defence Secretariat in the Cabinet
Office,
who
reported to Sir Nigel Sheinwald that:
“Jeremy
believes that President Bush is not being warned that strategic
failure
cannot be
ruled out.
…
“He feels
that the Prime Minister should talk to the President in stark terms
next
week about
the dangers we face if we do not get a grip on the security
situation,
while at
the same time pushing forward the political programme and the
massive
reconstruction
task now under way.”323
322
Paper
[Greenstock], 20 November 2003, ‘Iraq: Security’.
323
Minute
Bowen to Sheinwald, 14 November 2003, ‘Iraq’.
302