8 | The
invasion
548.
Lt Gen
Pigott recommended preparing a strategic estimate for sustaining
a
large-scale
UK presence to March 2004.
549.
The second
paper sent to the Chiefs of Staff on 25 March was Lt Gen Pigott’s
draft
Phase IV
military planning guidance.334
550.
Lt Gen Pigott
stated that the MOD approach to Phase IV planning (“integration
of
top down
policy/strategic issues with bottom up operational/tactical
realities”) “has kept
us
reasonably balanced in a very uncertain
environment”.335
With Phase
IV “potentially
unfolding
from now on”, it was time to take stock and update UK military
commanders
and
staff.
551.
The guidance
outlined the wider strategic context for Phase IV, including the
UK’s
post-conflict
objectives and six “Strategic Lines of Operation”: disarmament,
security,
humanitarian
effort, political (initial governance and longer-term
reconstruction of political
institutions),
diplomatic and economic.
552.
Lt Gen Pigott
summarised the US framework for Phase IV:
•
Phase IVa
(stability), lasting 6, 12 or 18 months under best, moderate or
worst
case
scenarios;
•
Phase IVb
(recovery), 18 to 24 months;
•
Phase IVc
(transition), from 24 months.
553.
He explained
that US command and control for Phase IV was “a very fluid
area”,
had gone
through a number of iterations and could be expected to change
further.
554.
Lt Gen Pigott
advised that the scale of the UK military effort in Phase IV would
be:
“Informed
by operational considerations in the JOA [Joint Operational Area],
such as
levels of
consent but also taking account of wider Commitments, we need to
draw
down to
nearer medium scale of effort by autumn 03.”
555.
Lt Gen Pigott
explained that the UK distinguished between three levels of
consent:
“High”,
“Medium (Patchy)” and “Low”. These mirrored the US model of best,
moderate
and worst
case scenarios. Current UK thinking assumed “medium (patchy)
consent
turning to
high as the basis for Phase IV planning at this stage but
recognises that there
will be
areas where low consent is more likely, possibly for some
time.”
334
Minute
COSSEC to PSO/CDS, 25 March 2003, ‘OP COS Paper: Subject –
Op TELIC
– Phase
IV
(Post Conflict):
Military Planning Guidance’.
335
Minute
DCDS(C) to COSSEC, 25 March 2003, ‘Op TELIC
Phase IV
(Post Conflict): Military Planning
Guidance’
attaching Paper [draft] DCDS(C), 25 March 2003, ‘Op
TELIC
Phase IV
(Post Conflict): Military
Planning
Guidance’.
99