7 |
Conclusions: Pre-conflict strategy and planning
437.
A military
timetable should not be allowed to dictate a diplomatic timetable.
If a
strategy of
coercive diplomacy is being pursued, forces should be deployed in
such a
way that
the threat of action can be increased or decreased according to the
diplomatic
situation
and the policy can be sustained for as long as
necessary.
438.
The issue of
influencing the US, both at the strategic and at the operational
level,
was a
constant preoccupation at all levels of the UK
Government.
439.
Prime
Ministers will always wish to exercise their own political
judgement on
how to
handle the relationship with the US. It will depend on personal
relationships as
well as on
the nature of the issues being addressed. On all these matters of
strategy
and
diplomacy, the Inquiry recognises that there is no standard formula
that will be
appropriate
in all cases.
440.
Whether or not
influence has been exercised can be difficult to ascertain,
even
in
retrospect. The views of allies are most likely to make a
difference when they come
in one side
of an internal debate, and there are a number of instances where
the UK
arguments
did make a difference to the formation and implementation of US
policy.
The US
and UK are close allies, but the relationship between the two is
unequal.
441.
The exercise
of influence will always involve a combination of identifying
the
prerequisites
for success in a shared endeavour, and a degree of bargaining to
make
sure that
the approach meets the national interest. In situations like the
run-up to the
invasion of
Iraq:
•
If certain
measures are identified as prerequisite for success then
their
importance
should be underlined from the start. There are no prizes for
sharing
a
failure.
•
Those
measures that are most important should be pursued persistently
and
consistently.
•
If it is
assumed that a consequence of making a contribution in one area is
that
a further
contribution would not be required in another, then that should be
made
explicit.
•
Influence
should not be set as an objective in itself. The exercise of
influence
is a
means to an end.
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