The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
contribution
from about 45,000 to 15,000 in the “medium term (by the
autumn)”
to “avoid
long term damage to the Armed Forces”. At the same time, the
US
expected
the UK to contribute forces “for the security of a geographic area
…
over the
medium term”. The IPU considered it “reasonable to assume that
a
brigade
should be able to manage a single, well-populated province” the
size of
Basra, but
there were four options available:
{{a
brigade responsible for security in a single province;
{{a UK
divisional headquarters could take responsibility for security,
under
Coalition
command, in a wider area of Iraq (US planners envisaged
Basra,
Maysan, Dhi
Qar and Wasit being a single sector), supported by
Coalition
partners,
which, the paper recognised, could be difficult to
find;
{{deployment of
the ARRC in addition or as an alternative to a
brigade;
{{withdrawal of
all forces in the medium term, though the paper warned
that
would be
politically difficult.
•
Whether to
follow the US plan to administer Iraq as a whole and not
seek
general UK
responsibility for the administration of any geographic area in
the
medium
term. The US plan was to administer Iraq as a whole from
Baghdad,
“which must
be right”. In any area where the UK took responsibility for
security,
it could,
with a UN mandate, also take on wider responsibility for
reconstruction
(including
humanitarian assistance and aspects of civil administration),
but
that would
“very likely be beyond the resources of the UK alone and
have
implications
for domestic departments”.
•
Whether any
UK involvement in the medium term should be conditional on a
UN
mandate.
•
To agree a
set of objectives for post-conflict occupation of
Iraq. The
UK’s
objectives
would be achieved when Iraq had been “radically changed for
the
better”.
The US ambition was reform leading to “a liberal market economy
and
multi-party
democracy”, and was consistent with UK objectives as set out
by
Mr Straw
in Parliament on 7 January. From a UK perspective, the IPU
envisaged
an Iraq
that:
{{had “a
broad-based, effective and representative government”;
{{had
“given up its attachment to WMD”;
{{had
armed forces and intelligence services of “an appropriate size …
well
on the way
to being reformed”;
{{complied
with its international obligations;
{{respected
human rights and made “significant progress towards a fair
and
effective
justice sector”;
{{was not
dependent on OFF and was “well on the way to becoming a
free
market
economy”;
452