The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
administrations,
but they are much smaller both in size (Wales not France)
and
population
(2.5m in Kosovo, 25m in Iraq). In Afghanistan we have worked
with
a local
political process and administration. In Iraq we face having to
replace a
government
and remove a political party which has dominated Iraqi politics
and
institutions
for over 40 years. So some similarities to post-war
Germany.”
436.
On
post-conflict planning, the paper stated:
“The US has
assumed for planning purposes that it will lead the government of
Iraq
following
military victory. It has consulted extensively with the Iraqi exile
population,
many of
whom are well informed about the situation in Iraq, but have their
own
agenda.
There has been extensive CENTCOM and DoD planning for the
military
campaign
and the first 60 to 90 days. PJHQ are plugged into this well, and
have
helped to
shape some aspects of it. There is also good progress in planning
to follow
up the
military advance with immediate humanitarian support for the Iraqi
population.
But there
is no serious US assessment of the consequence of CBW use on
the
civilian
population.
“PJHQ
started their own detailed planning exercise as soon as it became
clear
that UK
forces might have control over the Basra area of southern Iraq
(city
population
1.5m alone) from the very early stages of the campaign …
Whitehall
inter-departmental
teams have visited [the US] several times since last autumn
to
discuss the
issues. Some decisions cannot of course be made until the
Coalition
can assess
the situation post-conflict. But there is no coherent plan of how
Iraq will
be governed
beyond the first 3 to 6 months. This risks the continuation of a
military
government
becoming increasingly unpopular. This would be even more likely if
the
US
proceeded with a plan of dividing Iraq into three sectors for
military government.
“The US
envisages that there will be three phases
post-conflict:
•
A military
government led by a US general for the first 3 to 6 months
to
re-establish
security and deal with the humanitarian crisis.
•
Then a
civilian-led international government charged with rebuilding
democracy
from the
bottom up, restoring key services and increasing oil production.
The
US hope
this would last 12 to 18 months but accept it might take
longer.
•
Handover to
an Iraqi representative government at which point Coalition
forces
would
withdraw.
“Our key
concerns are to manage the task, by ensuring that we have legal
cover, as
much
support as possible within Iraq and internationally, and as much
help in both
money and
skills from the international community.”
437.
The paper
stated that decisions needed to be reached with the US
on:
•
Legitimacy.
The US had been told that the UK required the UN to legitimise
the
post-conflict
government of Iraq and to resolve legal problems around
sanctions
384