6.4 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, mid-2001
to January 2003
“A balance
must be struck between the competing demands for reform and
removal
of
Ba’athist influence and the need for effective administration. This
dilemma shapes
some clear
information requirements …
•
A detailed
structural analysis of the current regime, its instruments of
state
power and
its administration.
•
An informed
UK-US judgement on the degree to which reform will be
required
immediately,
for effective operation, and eventually, to secure the end
state.
•
A rolling
assessment of the effectiveness of state institutions as a
result
of
Coalition action, linked to a mechanism for moderating or
accelerating
operations
to set conditions for successful post-conflict efforts.
Throughout,
military
offensive action must be balanced against the
longer-term
objectives
– the opportunity for counter-productive destruction is
high.”
805.
The paper
included a diagram showing the military activities (“lines of
operation”)
supporting
the four policy pillars and the expected duration of each activity
across four
phases:
•
pre-conflict;
•
immediate
(six months);
•
medium term
(six months to two years);
•
long term
(2-10 years).
806.
The military
activities were focused on provision of security and SSR.
Potential
“supporting
roles” included “administration, planning and co-ordination”,
emergency
reconstruction,
urgent humanitarian assistance, support to international courts
and
“info
ops”.
807.
The SPG
proposed a possible definition of the military end
state:
“An
accountable Iraqi security structure capable of assuming
self-defence and
internal
security responsibilities in accordance with international
law.”
808.
No firm date
was given for achieving the military end state. The paper
indicated
that the UK
might choose to set its own end state at as little as two years “to
meet [the]
aspiration
for shorter engagement”.
809.
The diagram
identified short-term military activities likely to last up to six
months
(emergency
reconstruction; urgent humanitarian assistance; transitional law
and order),
medium-term
activities of up to two years (“administration, planning and
co-ordination”;
WMD
removal), and long-term activities lasting up to 10 years (force
protection; control
and reform
of Iraqi armed forces and handover to those forces; maintenance of
internal
security
and territorial integrity; infrastructure security).
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