The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
749.
It proposed
that achieving the UK’s preferred outcome of “a more
representative
and democratic Iraq” might involve three phases:
•
a
transitional Coalition military government lasting up to six
months;
•
a UN
administration lasting about three years; and
•
a sovereign
Iraqi government.
750.
The Cabinet
Office sent a paper on models for Iraq after Saddam Hussein
to
Sir David
Manning on 1 November.377
751.
The Cabinet
Office paper was the first attempted synthesis of some of the
work
undertaken
by departments under the auspices of the AHGI. It was conceived as
the
steering
brief for the FCO/MOD/DFID/Cabinet Office delegation to the
forthcoming
talks on
post-conflict issues with the US in Washington and did not propose
or allocate
responsibility
for next steps. Mr Drummond described it to Sir David Manning as
a
summary of
latest thinking. The ideas in it would not be presented as UK
policy.
752.
The paper
stated that there were many possible permutations of the “stable
united
and law
abiding state … providing effective and representative government”
sought by
the UK, but
focused on just two:
“a. an Iraq
under a new, more amenable strongman;
b. a more
representative and democratic Iraq.”
753.
In the event
of Saddam Hussein being toppled by a new strongman from his
inner
circle
before or during the early stages of a military campaign, the new
regime could be
recognised
in return for agreement to certain conditions. But:
“Our
leverage over the new regime would quickly dissipate as Coalition
forces
could not
remain at invasion strength in the region for long. Any sanctions,
once
lifted,
would be difficult to re-impose. This scenario for achieving our
goal of Iraqi
disarmament
would be relatively simple and cheap, but there would be a high
risk
of the
new strongman reverting to Saddam’s policies …”
754.
Assuming that
Saddam Hussein’s regime fell and Coalition forces
reached
Baghdad,
the UK’s preferred model for the future government of Iraq might
fall into
three phases:
•
transitional
Coalition military government;
•
UN
administration; and
•
a
“sovereign, representative and democratic government of
Iraq”.
755.
Scenario ‘b’
assumed UN authorisation for military action and that the
international
community
and UN system would be willing to assist with
reconstruction.
377
Minute
Drummond to Manning, 1 November 2002, ‘Iraq: Post-Saddam’ attaching
Paper ‘Iraq: Models
and some
questions for post-Saddam government’.
238