The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
513.
The
introduction to the paper on international consequences
stated:
“This paper
identifies some of the possible impacts of war with Iraq on the
immediate
region and
beyond over the short term. One of the aims is to identify the
unintended
consequences
which could easily produce problems (cf the displacement of
the
Kurds in
1991). The
intention is not to predict catastrophe. But by preparing
for
the worst, we
should be better placed to avoid it.”
514.
The FCO
suggested that much would depend on the nature of the
military
campaign,
but that it was possible to identify certain risks:
•
“Humanitarian
emergency in Iraq”. This was possible unless the war
ended
quickly.
The UK would be expected to play a major role in any
international
response.
That response would need military support and to be
co-ordinated
with the
military campaign. That would be difficult, with the US military
unlikely to
want
humanitarian agencies on the ground complicating
things.
•
“Refugee
Crisis”. This might result from a prolonged or inconclusive
conflict
during
which the Iraqi regime targeted parts of the population. Meeting
refugees’
needs would
be a significant challenge and potentially destabilising for
some
of Iraq’s
neighbours. Senior Ba’athists would probably try to blend in with
other
refugees.
There might need to be “some sort of screening process to
identify
those we
would wish to interrogate and possibly bring criminal charges
against”.
•
“Demonstrations,
riots and political stability”. Military action would
heighten
anti-Western
feeling in the region. That could pose a threat to British
nationals
or
interests and destabilise governments in the region. Much would
depend on
whether
there was UN support and which countries joined the
Coalition.
•
“Terrorist
attacks”. With the US and others distracted, war in Iraq might
create an
easier
environment for terrorists to operate in and would create a new
incentive
for them to
act. UK Embassies and other interests might be attractive
targets.
•
“Environmental”.
Depending on Saddam Hussein’s actions, a major
environmental
clean-up might be needed.
•
“Non-related
but potentially linked crises”. With attention focused on Iraq,
other
crises
“could easily flare up”. Afghanistan and India/Pakistan were the
main
concerns.
Russia might “increase suppression of the Chechens” or “turn
the
heat up on
Georgia”.
•
“Economic”.
Oil prices would rise; stock markets would fall. Both should
be
short-term,
but could be longer lasting. War would also be expensive.
Germany,
Saudi
Arabia and Japan had been major players in 1991.284
Would they
be
again?
There were also potentially significant costs linked to
reconstruction and
Iraqi
debt.
284
Germany,
Saudi Arabia, Japan and other countries made significant financial
contributions to military
operations
in the 1991 Gulf Conflict.
198