The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
of
suggesting ways of mitigating and managing them. I suggest we focus
on the
following:
•
The morning
after in Iraq. What is the political process that secures
a
compliant,
representative successor regime while Iraq retains its
existing
borders
(FCO)? Reforming the security sector, civil service (MOD
and
DFID).
•
Tactics for
securing international support before and after the action.
FCO
need to
write a paper …
•
Impact on
world growth and trade, and on the UK economy (HMT
[the
Treasury]
to write a note if they haven’t already).
•
Securing
oil supplies and effect of regime change on world oil markets
(DTI).
•
Consequences
for air travel including viability of airlines (DfT).
•
Environment.
The after effects of CBW [chemical and biological
weapons],
oil fires,
pollution in the Gulf etc … (DEFRA).
•
Impact on
the UK … (Home Office and Security Service should
lead).”277
505.
Mr Drummond
suggested focusing on the main points needing discussion with
the
US,
“probably the morning after and handling the region”. He
recommended that work
on campaign
objectives be kept in OD Sec and the Restricted COBR.
506.
The AHGI
remained the principal Whitehall co-ordination mechanism for
non-
military
Iraq planning until the creation of the inter-departmental Iraq
Planning Unit (IPU)
in February
2003. Military planning continued to be restricted to a very narrow
circle.
507.
The record of
the first meeting confirmed that:
“Most
[departments] have begun considering implications of military
action. These
include
Treasury on the macro economic impact, DTI on oil markets, DFID
on
humanitarian
aspects, CCS [Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat] on
UK
contingency
planning, DfT on aviation security and the police and agencies on
their
range of
issues …
“We should
give priority to thinking through the morning after questions.
The
FCO have
work in hand on this [in] preparation for talks with the US. They
will
share a
draft with interested departments … They are already deeply engaged
in
discussions
with the US about handling the regional players.”278
277
Minute
Drummond to Bowen, 19 September 2002, ‘Ad Hoc Group on Iraq
(AHGI)’.
278
Minute
Drummond to Manning, 23 September 2002, ‘Ad Hoc Group on
Iraq’.
196