The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
431.
In a new list
of “key deductions”, the SPG advised:
“Given
fractious nature of Iraqi politics, broad regional concern on
nature of new
Iraqi
government, and poor state of Iraqi infrastructure, delivery of
stated post-
conflict
objectives will require lengthy engagement.
“Successful
post-conflict delivery of US support to a new, broad-based
government
will
require co-operation and agreement of regional states on
acceptability of the
outcome, if
its efforts are not to be undermined.”
432.
The SPG also
listed strategic issues needing resolution before there could be
a
“winning
concept”. They included:
•
the “likely
model for Iraqi governance, security structures, and economy,
to
inform
estimates of post-conflict engagement”; and
•
the likely
post-conflict role of the UN.
433.
In the section
on post-conflict tasks, the list of likely short-, medium- and
long-term
post-conflict
military tasks from earlier versions was replaced with a briefer
description
of planning
priorities. The SPG stated that US military planners were working
on detailed
post-conflict
plans, but drawing on very broad assumptions about the nature of
the new
regime. The
SPG recommended that:
“… clarity
and broad agreement on [the] following is needed before coherent
plans
can be
effectively delivered:
•
Political.
Nature of
regime, extent of franchise, land tenure, and
relations
with other
states.
•
Economic.
Ownership
and redevelopment of oil resources and
development
of other economic activity.
•
Security.
Security
structures and security sector reform (SSR). Purpose,
size and
nature of Iraqi Armed Forces and internal security
forces.”
“Planning
will need to be undertaken with DFID in order to effectively
manage
[the] NGO
response to humanitarian consequences. Saddam may well use
mass
movement of
refugees as an operational tool to slow Coalition advance and as
part
of a
strategic attack on Coalition … domestic public support
…
“Without
clear post-conflict plans potential scale … of UK military
commitment
remains an
unknown.”
184