6.4 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, mid-2001
to January 2003
86.
During
2001, UK officials began to consider the possible shape of Iraq
after
the
departure of Saddam Hussein.
87.
At that
stage, the UK assumption was that the most likely successor
to
Saddam
Hussein was another Sunni strongman.
88.
A number of
concerns emerged during initial exchanges:
•
the
long-term implications of military action;
•
US support
for the Iraqi opposition;
•
the
dilapidated state of Iraq’s infrastructure;
•
the risks
of de-Ba’athification; and
•
the absence
of obvious successors to Saddam Hussein.
89.
In his memoir,
Mr Blair stated that the final part of his speech to the House
of
Commons on
18 March 2003, in which he set out the moral case for action
against
Saddam
Hussein, echoed his Chicago speech of 22 April
1999.66
90.
In the Chicago
speech, described in more detail in Section 1.1, Mr Blair had
raised
the
importance of being prepared for the long term after military
intervention.67
91.
In a reference
to international security, Mr Blair identified “two dangerous
and
ruthless
men” as the cause of “many of our problems”: Saddam Hussein and
Slobodan
Milošević
(President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia), both of whom had
waged
“vicious
campaigns against sections of their own community”. Instead of
enjoying its oil
wealth,
Iraq had been “reduced to poverty, with political life stultified
through fear”.
92.
Mr Blair set
out “five major considerations” to guide a decision on when and
whether
the
international community should intervene militarily in other
countries, including:
“… are we
prepared for the long term? In the past, we talked too much of
exit
strategies.
But having made a commitment we cannot simply walk away once
the
fight is
over; better to stay with moderate numbers of troops than return
for repeat
performances
with large numbers.”
93.
Mr Blair
sent a draft ‘Contract with the Iraqi People’ to President Bush
in
December
2001.
94.
In autumn
2000, the Government began a review of the UK’s Iraq policy.
That
process,
which continued into 2001, is addressed in detail in Section
3.1.
66
Blair
T. A
Journey.
Hutchinson, 2010.
67
Speech, 23
April 1999, Tony Blair, Doctrine of
the International Community.
129