6.2 |
Military planning for the invasion, January to March
2003
666.
Shortly before
midnight on 19 March, the US informed Sir David Manning
that
there was
to be a change to the plan and US air strikes would be launched at
0300 GMT
667.
Early on the
morning of 20 March, US forces crossed into Iraq and seized the
port
668.
The invasion
of Iraq is addressed in Section 8. The continuing discussions
about
the
planning and preparations for a post-conflict Iraq and the UK’s
role in that are
addressed
in Section 6.5.
669.
The Military
Campaign Objectives were published on 20 March.239
They
are
addressed
in Section 8.
670.
Lord
Goldsmith’s approval had been sought for the
document.240
671.
The final
version reflected Lord Goldsmith’s request for a number
of
672.
The record of
the JIC discussion on 19 March stated that the draft Note,
‘Saddam:
The
Beginning of the End’, “tried to answer some difficult questions
about Saddam’s
likely
actions as the endgame approached, but the picture was moving fast
and
predictions
remained difficult”. Saddam was “likely to go out fighting”. The
JIC also
asked that
the Note be reordered “to include judgements on Iraq’s CBW
intentions,
possibly
against a Shia uprising; Saddam’s intentions in each of the three
main
geographical
areas of Iraq; threats to the oilfields; regime and military
cohesion in the
light of
army desertions; Saddam’s ability to maintain control … and the
defence of
Baghdad.
The Daily Updates needed to record developments in these
areas.”242
673.
The JIC Note
produced on the same day stated that the Iraqi regime was
making
its final
preparations for war.243
Saddam
Hussein had publicly activated his regional
command
structure on 15 March and Iraq’s military and security services
were “on
the highest
state of alert”. The JIC stated that “Saddam’s scope for extreme
and
unpredictable
action” was increasing as the prospect of an attack increased. The
timing
and
sequence of his next moves were “already highly
uncertain”.
237
Letter
Manning to McDonald, 20 March 2003, ‘Iraq’.
238
Ministry of
Defence, Operations
in Iraq: Lessons for Future, December
2003.
239
House of
Commons, Official
Report, 20 March
2003, column 1087.
240
Letter
Bowen to Brummell, 14 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Military Campaign
Objectives’ attaching Paper,
March 2003,
‘Iraq: Military Campaign Objectives’.
241
Letter
Brummell to Bowen, 16 March 2003, ‘Iraq – Military Campaign
Objectives’.
242
Minutes, 19
March 2003, JIC meeting.
243
Note JIC,
19 March 2003, ‘Saddam: The Beginning of the End’.
493