6.2 |
Military planning for the invasion, January to March
2003
•
the risk of
creating fertile ground for Al Qaida, which could deliberately
cause
civilian
casualties to undermine the establishment of a representative
Iraqi-led
administration.
The report
stated that Al Qaida:
“… seeks
removal of Western presence/influence from the Gulf and wants to
see
the US/UK
operation go badly. AQ are currently in some disarray but will wish
to
take the
opportunity presented by the US/UK operation to re-establish
credibility and
encourage
widespread anti-Western activity in the region.
However:
•
Initially AQ
shared a common goal with the Coalition: regime change.
Once
completed,
goals will diverge rapidly and UK/US forces will present a
rich
target for
terrorist attack.
•
AQ feared the
establishment of a pluralist, representative Iraqi
government
as it
undermines their argument that Muslims can only achieve
self-
determination
in a unitary Islamic theocracy. They could deliberately
cause
civilian
casualties to undermine the Coalition’s position.”
456.
By 21
February, HQ 1 (UK) Div and 3 Commando Brigade were fully
deployed
and at full
operating capability and 16 Air Assault Brigade was expected to
be
deployed
within days.
457.
Discussions
had begun with the US about a more substantial role
for
7th
Armoured Brigade, which was expected to be fully deployed in Kuwait
by
10 March.
458.
The MOD
provided No.10 with an update on military preparations
on
21 February.162
It
stated:
•
The
National Contingent HQ was fully deployed in Qatar and at full
operating
capability.
•
The
Maritime Contingent Commander and his staff were deployed in
Bahrain.
All ships
were at sea, mostly in the Gulf.
•
HQ 1 (UK)
Div was fully deployed in Kuwait and was at full operating
capability.
Its support
elements would not reach full operating capability until
ships
transporting
elements of equipment arrived in theatre in early
March.
•
The
deployment of 3 Commando Brigade was complete, with all units at
full
operating
capability.
•
The
deployment of 16 Air Assault Brigade to Kuwait was due to be
completed
“within the
next couple of days”.
162
Minute
Williams to Manning, 21 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Update’ attaching
Paper [undated], ‘Iraq: Defence
Update 21
Feb 03’.
457