The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
336.
When Mr
Blair met President Bush on 31 January, it was clear that
the
window for
peaceful disarmament would only be a few weeks. The
military
campaign
could begin around 10 March.
337.
Mr Blair and
President Bush had a two hour meeting in Washington on
31 January
followed by
a press conference and an informal dinner.117
The
discussions are
addressed
in Section 3.6.
338.
On military
planning, Mr Blair and President Bush discussed the possibility
that
Iraqi
forces would fold quickly. Mr Blair asked about planning for the
post-conflict period.
In his view
a UN badge would be needed. That would help with the
humanitarian
problems.
Mr Blair and President Bush discussed an initial military
occupation, how to
handle the
dilemma of managing the transition to civil administration and the
nature of
an Iraqi
government.
339.
Mr Blair
concluded that the US and UK needed to prepare to organise on
a
“war
footing”, working very closely together “particularly on our public
communications”.
340.
Sir David
Manning recorded that it was clear that the window of opportunity
would
be only a
few weeks. Otherwise the US would take military action. The
military campaign
could begin
“around 10 March”, and earlier if Dr Blix’s report on 14 February
was tough.
The timing
was “very tight”.
341.
The Inquiry
asked Mr Blair at what point he had concluded that the US
“had
definitely
decided on military action in March 2003”.118
342.
In his
statement for the Inquiry, Mr Blair wrote:
“It was
clear from continuing discussion with the US in late 2002/early
2003 that
March was
the likely date for military action. That firmed up as it became
plain that
there was
no significant shift in the attitude of Saddam. The December
Declaration
… was
incomplete, as Blix noted … His first report was to the effect that
there was
not full
compliance, essentially around interviews. There were various
possible
alternatives
to military action surfacing, including proposals for Saddam
peacefully
343.
On 31 January,
Mr Hoon wrote to Mr Blair, advising him that he intended
to
announce
the agreed air package on 6 February.120
117
Letter
Manning to McDonald, 31 January 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s
Conversation with
President
Bush on 31 January’.
118
Statement
Request for Rt Hon Tony Blair, 13 December 2010, page
6.
119
Statement,
14 January 2011, page 11.
120
Letter Hoon
to Prime Minister, 31 January 2003, ‘Iraq: Announcement of Air
Package’.
436