The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
told by
everyone that it was not on. Had that been the case, we would have
stopped
1367.
At the time he
gave evidence, Sir Kevin had not had the telegrams from
Ankara
drawn to
his attention.528
1368.
Sir Kevin
confirmed that there had been a majority vote in the Turkish
Parliament
but that it
was not sufficiently large to approve the
deployment.529
1369.
In relation to
Mr Hoon’s visit in January 2003, Mr Lee told the
Inquiry:
“As
I recall … that was a sort of last throw of the dice
really, that everyone else had
tried,
hadn’t had an outright ‘no’, but hadn’t had any sort of
encouragement either.
So we
should try this. He [Hoon] should go, speak to his opposite
numbers, as many
people as
possible in the Turkish hierarchy, and see what the result would
be. The
outcome of
that visit was, I think, the realisation dawned that Turkey
was not going
to agree.
So things moved on, away from the northern option.”530
1370.
The need
for a northern axis for any invasion of Iraq was suggested to
the
US by the
UK military in July 2002.
1371.
The MOD’s
preference for a discrete role in northern Iraq was identified
in
July 2002
and it remained the preferred option until the end of the
year.
1372.
The evidence
set out in this Section catalogues the advice, offered
by
PJHQ to the
MOD and the MOD advice to Mr Hoon and Mr Blair between
July and
December 2002,
on the strategic rationale for both northern and southern axes
of
attack in
an invasion of Iraq, and the advantages of the northern option from
the
UK’s perspective.
1373.
The proposal
reflected long‑held and legitimate judgements about the
difficulties
which could
arise during operations if ground forces at a brigade level or
below were
embedded
within US structures.
1374.
A briefing
note for Mr Hoon on 11 December 2002 explicitly confirmed that
the
northern
option “came from our strategic analysis in the first
place”.531
527
Private
hearing, 6 May 2010, pages 17‑18.
528
Private
hearing, 6 May 2010, page 17.
529
Private
hearing, 6 May 2010, page 18.
530
Private
hearing, 22 June 2010, pages 29‑30.
531
Minute
Johnson to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 11 December 2002, ‘Iraq:
Military Planning – Turkey
Handling’.
376