The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
674.
Lt Gen Reith
stated that it would be “easier, militarily, to ratchet down than
ratchet
up any
forces offered”, but the “COS acknowledged that it might be
unattractive
politically,269
to deliver
less than that which had initially been offered”.
675.
The Chiefs of
Staff agreed that the package recommended by Lt Gen Reith
was a
viable
option, subject to resolving the constraints which had been
identified; and that an
armoured
brigade represented the smallest force that could act
autonomously.
676.
Lt Gen Reith
told the Inquiry:
“I got a
briefing on the northern option from my own staff on the 18
September,
having done
operational analysis on it, and it was clear that we couldn’t do it
on our
own, even
with a full division.”270
677.
When
Mr Hoon discussed the options with his most senior advisers
later that day,
Adm Boyce
told him that there was “clearer [US] understanding of the
importance of
operations
in northern Iraq to ‘fix’ Iraqi forces”.271
Gen Franks
had indicated that it would
be “helpful
if the UK could provide in the North an armoured brigade and a
2-star tactical
lead” which
would command US forces.
678.
Adm Boyce
added that the Chiefs of Staff had continuing doubts about
whether
the US had
a winning concept.
679.
When Package 3
was discussed, Mr Hoon requested clarification of the length
of
time
necessary to deploy a land contribution.
680.
Adm Boyce said
that early decisions would be needed on UORs, reserves
and units
which were allocated to Op FRESCO. Package 3 would also require
a
“£1bn premium”,
which “could exhaust the Reserve”.
681.
Mr Hoon
agreed that, subject to No.10’s agreement, Lt Gen Reith
would be able to
indicate to
CENTCOM, for planning purposes and with the caveat that no final
political
decision
had been taken, that two separate UK contributions could
potentially be
available:
•
Package 2,
which offered a “significant and useful contribution to any US
led
action”;
and
•
Package 3
as a possible add‑on, with guidance that the US should also
plan
without
it.
682.
Mr Hoon
also asked for a detailed breakdown of the estimated costs of UORs
for
a meeting
with Mr Brown on 23 September.
269
The Inquiry
considers this to be a reference to the potential impact on US/UK
relations, not a comment
on the
views of politicians.
270
Private
hearing, 15 January 2010, page 23
271
Minute
Watkins to PSO/CDS, 19 September 2002, ‘Iraq: Potential UK
Contribution to any US‑led
Action’.
276