6.1 |
Development of the military options for an invasion of
Iraq
625.
President Bush
and Mr Blair discussed the prospects for a military
campaign,
including
the possibility of leaving Saddam Hussein “bottled up” in
Baghdad.
626.
Sir David
Manning recorded that Mr Blair expressed caution about the
US
assumption
that the UK would be ready to lead a strike from Turkey into
northern Iraq
and provide
two thirds of the force. But Mr Blair had emphasised that the
UK would
indeed take
“a significant military role” if it came to war with
Iraq.
627.
Mr Hoon
was not sent Sir David Manning’s record of Mr Blair’s
discussion with
628.
Mr Blair
telephoned Mr Hoon on the evening of 8 September, to give
him a
read‑out of
his discussions with President Bush and Vice President Cheney, and
the
US position
on the UN route, in advance of Mr Hoon’s visit to the
US.253
629.
Mr Rycroft
recorded that Mr Blair said:
“… he had
been alarmed that [President] Bush had understood that the UK
would
be ‘leading
the invasion’ from the North of Iraq. This required very careful
handling.
Having
received the military advice, the Prime Minister’s view was that we
could not
offer
Package 3 in the timescale required and given the constraints of
Operation
Fresco. But
we might be able to offer Package 2, plus some further
elements.
There should
be no visible preparations for a month or so.”
630.
A minute from
Mr Hoon’s office to Sir David Manning on 12 September
reported
that,
following the discussion, Mr Hoon had taken “a small number of
decisions”, related
to
participation in US planning and exercises “necessary to keep these
options open”.254
They
included:
•
a
reconnaissance visit to Turkey;
•
preparations
for participation in Exercise Internal Look, a US exercise to
develop
command
arrangements for any future military operation against Iraq,
including
a visit to
Qatar, pending a final decision on participation; and
•
participation
in a CENTCOM planning conference starting on 23
September,
at which it
would be necessary to define, without commitment, the detail of
any
military
involvement.
631.
Sir David
Manning commented to Mr Powell and Mr Rycroft: “Looks
OK”.255
252
Minute
Manning to Prime Minister, 8 September 2002, ‘Your Visit to Camp
David on 7 September:
Conversation
with President Bush’.
253
Minute
Rycroft to Manning, 9 September 2002, ‘Iraq: Military
Contribution’.
254
Letter
Williams to Manning, 12 September 2002, ‘Iraq: Contingency
Actions’.
255
Manuscript
comment Manning on Letter Williams to Manning, 12 September 2002,
‘Iraq:
Contingency Actions’.
269