The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
284.
A review of
DFID’s I-CAP was under way. It was unlikely to result in major
changes,
but
existing activities would need to be “more focused” on the four UK
objectives set out
in the UK
paper ‘Iraq: Strategy for 2005’, which had been agreed on 9
February.
285.
On 6 April,
the JIC assessed the state of the insurgency in Iraq following
the
January
election.160
It judged
that a significant Sunni insurgency would continue
through
2005, but
that there now appeared to be greater opportunities for reducing
it. The ITG’s
early
actions would be critical in changing Sunni perceptions and eroding
support for
the insurgency.
Sunni expectations included the direction of reconstruction
money
to Sunni
areas.
286.
Mr Blair
met President Bush on 8 April. Mr Blair’s briefing for the
meeting
suggested
that he might raise four operational points with President Bush,
including
power
supply.161
It would be
very damaging for the ITG if there was no improvement
in
electricity
supply that summer. The UK was looking to boost supply in the short
term in
the South
through a DFID/MOD programme; the US needed to do more
quick-impact
work across
Iraq.
287.
The record of
the meeting did not include any reference to a discussion
on
improving
power supply, or reconstruction more broadly.162
288.
Lt Gen Kiszely
completed his tour as the Senior British Military
Representative,
Iraq and
sent his “hauldown” report to Gen Walker on 16
April.163
Lt Gen
Kiszely
assessed
that progress in MND(SE) had been good, with all four provinces
likely to
be under
Provincial Iraqi Security Control by March 2006, offering “the
potential for
considerable
reductions in UK force levels”.
289.
The I-CAP
review process was discussed in a meeting of DFID officials chaired
by
Mr Anderson
on 21 April 2005.164
The meeting
concluded that:
“The
starting point is that the I-CAP remains valid, but priorities
within that
have moved
on in the light of the substantially changed situation in Iraq
since
last
February [when the I-CAP was agreed], the 2005 Strategy and our
budget
constraints.”
160
JIC
Assessment, 6 April 2005, ‘Iraq: the State of the
Insurgency’.
161
Minute
Phillipson to Prime Minister, 7 April 2005, ‘Bilateral with
President Bush: 0800-0845, 8 April’.
162
Letter
Sheinwald to Adams, 8 April 2005, ‘Prime Minister’s Meeting with
President Bush, Rome, 8 April’.
163
Minute
Kiszely to CDS, 16 April 2005, ‘SBMR-I’s Hauldown
Report’.
164
Minute DFID
[junior official] to Anderson, 22 April 2005, ‘Iraq: ICAP Review
and 2005/06 Programming’.
242