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The Report of the Iraq Inquiry
40.  Mr Scarlett wrote:
Chemical Weapons
“Iraq is capable of producing the chemical agents mustard gas, tabun, sarin,
cyclosarin and VX.”
“Exact quantities of agent available are unknown, but we judge it is likely to be
between 10 and 100 tonnes (3.5 tonnes of nerve agent would fill 1,000 artillery
shells). We continue to judge that Iraq has produced chemical agent since
UNSCOM [UN Special Commission] left in 1998, although intelligence suggests
that agent production stopped prior to UNMOVIC’s deployment last autumn. We
do not know where this activity took place, but it is probable that it used dual-use
chemical facilities.”
“We know from intelligence that the regime expended a great deal of effort in
cleaning up all WMD associated sites, and dispersing equipment and material
in advance of UN inspections.”
“Details on chemical munitions are scarce. UNSCOM could not account for over
30,000 special munitions (both chemical and biological) although it is unlikely
that all of these remain.”
“We judge the most likely delivery means are artillery and battlefield rockets.
[Reference to reporting of retention of shells] mustard filled artillery shells from
a batch of 550 supposedly destroyed by Coalition air attack in 1991 …”
“Other means of delivery include aerial bombs, sprayers and missiles.
UNMOVIC could not account for 6,500 aerial bombs (which could easily be
hidden in a large hangar).”
“Despite some reports that such munitions have been deployed to Republican
Guard units, we judge that they probably remain under tight control … in the
area of Baghdad.”
“Over last few days there have been a number of reports concerning chemical
weapons … But the nature of the sources makes the veracity … difficult to
judge.”
A “few reports from senior Iraqi security officials” suggested that Iraq could not
“prepare or produce chemical weapons”, and that its stocks were “dispersed,
and that therefore such weapons will not be used”.
“In assessing these statements it is necessary to take into account the limited
access these individuals appear to have to military planning, their lack of
technical expertise and accompanying comments which are less credible.”
Biological Weapons
Iraq was “capable of producing biological agents, including anthrax, botulinum
toxin, aflatoxin and ricin”.
432
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