4.3 |
Iraq WMD assessments, October 2002 to March 2003
567.
Asked about
the confidence attached to the reports of 11 and 23
September,
SIS1 told
the Inquiry that he thought “it was based in part on wishful
thinking”.
He
added:
“SIS was
under quite extraordinary pressure to try and get a better view of
Iraq’s
WMD
programme, and I think we marketed that intelligence – I think this
is not [an]
original
comment – before it was fully validated.”213
568.
Asked whether
there were doubts in SIS’s collective consciousness even
before
March 2003,
SIS1 replied:
“Well
before that. Even while it was still going on. Here was a chap who
promised
the crock
of gold at the end of the rainbow. Now, you have got to go for
those,
because
sometimes that can be just what you are looking
for.”214
569.
Asked about
the strain that had put on the validation process and the way in
which
it is
reported, SIS1 replied:
“Well,
there wasn’t much to validate. What he was promising had not
arrived.
That was
the point.
…
“… and I
think that that created an expectation which could not be
fulfilled, not only
on the part
of those who were briefed on it …”215
570.
Asked whether
the reporting was the reason for the belief that there was a
growing
threat,
SIS1 replied: “No, because, again, there wasn’t much to go
on.”
571.
Asked if the
reporting had influenced actual assessments, SIS1
replied:
“No, he
didn’t influence assessments. He influenced expectation on the part
of
people who
were concerned, are we going in the right
direction.”216
572.
Asked about
Sir David Omand’s comment to the Inquiry that SIS
over-promised
and
under-delivered, SIS1 replied:
“If he was
referring to that [the information promised by the SIS source], I
think he’s
right. I
would hate it to be the epitaph of the whole period. If that was
the suggestion,
that’s
completely untrue.”217
573.
Asked about
the confidence which Sir Richard Dearlove had expressed in
the
intelligence,
SIS4 told the Inquiry that, for SIS, the report had a story behind
it. The
213
Private
hearing, 2010, page 18.
214
Private
hearing, 2010, page 18.
215
Private
hearing, 2010, pages 18-19.
216
Private
hearing, 2010, page 19.
217
Private
hearing, 2010, pages 19-20.
389