4.3 |
Iraq WMD assessments, October 2002 to March 2003
213.
The JIC
assessed on 29 January that retaining WMD was a vital
Iraqi
interest
and that Saddam Hussein was unlikely to agree to relinquish
power
or go
into exile.
214.
The JIC
sustained its earlier judgements on Iraq’s ability and intent
to
conduct
terrorist operations.
215.
At the request
of the FCO, the JIC reviewed current developments in Iraq
from
Saddam
Hussein’s perspective and possible Iraqi moves in the coming
weeks.89
216.
The minutes of
the JIC discussion on 29 January record that the draft
Assessment
had been
difficult to write given the fast-moving developments, and it was
important
to ensure
it reflected the latest information, especially the UNMOVIC
perspective.90
The minutes
also recorded that:
“… it was
difficult to predict if and when Saddam might launch pre-emptive
strikes,
but the
paper should try and make a judgement on possible timescales. The
trigger
would
probably be set when Saddam concluded that his fate was sealed,
rather
than any
movements by Coalition Forces. Most of the Iraqi military would
probably
crumble
quickly under attack. Saddam would maintain his hold on power until
then,
and there
were no indications of possible coups beforehand. Whilst the Iraqi
public
might
welcome the end of Saddam’s regime, they were also concerned about
the
human costs
of fighting.”
217.
The JIC’s Key
Judgements about weapons of mass destruction were:
•
“Retaining
WMD remains a vital Iraqi interest. Saddam might
nevertheless
consider a
last minute tactical declaration of some of his WMD to avert a
war,
believing
that he can rebuild his WMD capability later.”
•
“Saddam
probably believes he has some strong political and military cards
to
play, even
in the face of an inevitable attack. … He may … fire CBW
against
Coalition
Forces …”
218.
Other key
elements of the Assessment in relation to Iraq’s WMD capability and
its
use are set
out in the Box below.
89
JIC
Assessment, 29 January 2003, ‘Iraq: The Emerging View from
Baghdad’.
90
Minutes, 29
January 2003, JIC meeting.
333