4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
349.
Mr Williams
told the Inquiry that he could “recall feeling it necessary” to
produce
the note,
“though not what internal or external event prompted this”, and
that “clearly
there was a
heightened activity in Whitehall at the time”.156
350.
The proposals
were discussed in a meeting held by Mr Straw on 18 March. That
is
addressed
later in this Section.
351.
Mr Blair
concluded on 17 March that the papers he had been given on
Iraq
did not
constitute a properly worked out strategy and that he would need
to
provide the
US with a far more intelligent and detailed analysis of a game plan
if
the UK was
to influence its decisions.
352.
That
included a need to “re-order our story and message” to address
the
limited
support for a policy of regime change.
353.
In a minute to
Mr Jonathan Powell, his Chief of Staff, on 17 March,
Mr Blair noted
the absence
of a “proper worked-out strategy” on Iraq, and the need to provide
the US
“with a far
more intelligent and detailed analysis of a game
plan”.157
“The
persuasion job on this seems very tough. My own side are worried.
Public
opinion is
fragile. International opinion – as I found at the EU – is pretty
sceptical.
“Yet from a
centre-left perspective, the case should be obvious …”
355.
Mr Blair
acknowledged that “the immediate WMD problems don’t seem
obviously
worse than
3 years ago”. He concluded: “So we have to re-order our story and
message.
Increasingly
I think [these] should be about the nature of the
regime.”
356.
Asked to
explain the thinking in his minute, Mr Blair told the Inquiry
that, in relation
to WMD,
the:
“… question
was about the changed assessment of the risk and the difficulty
of
making the
case that Saddam Hussein posed a threat.”158
357.
Mr Straw
concluded that the draft paper on WMD programmes of
concern
should be
replaced by one solely on Iraq. A more general paper on other
countries
might be
issued later.
358.
Officials
in No.10 agreed.
156
Statement,
December 2010, page 2.
157
Minute
Prime Minister to Powell, 17 March 2002, ‘Iraq’.
158
Public
hearing, 21 January 2011, pages 43-45.
79