4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
251.
Mr Scarlett
told Sir David Manning that the draft paper for publication
on
WMD
programmes of concern had taken a maximalist line, but said little
that had
not already
been published by the US.
252.
Mr Scarlett
sent a draft paper setting out the facts “for public use” on
WMD
programmes
of concern in Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Libya, which had
been
commissioned
on 19 February, to Sir David Manning on 6 March.117
253.
Mr Scarlett
wrote that there were:
“reservations
on several points:
•
acknowledging
that specific judgements draw on intelligence;
•
including
material that we know only from intelligence sources;
•
going
further than before in our accusations …”
“We can
discuss these issues (and indeed whether the paper should only
focus on
Iraq) at
your meeting tomorrow … while the draft does take a maximalist
line, it goes
little
further on most points than the material already published by the
Americans (to
whom we are
showing this version in parallel).
“Getting
the presentational tone right will clearly be key. We will need to
consider
at what
stage to consult Alastair Campbell [Mr Blair’s Director of
Communications
and
Strategy]. Alastair is aware that the draft paper is being shown to
you today and
stands
ready to advise …”
255.
The
Introduction to the draft paper stated:
•
“Several
countries have WMD programmes and missile systems to
deliver
nuclear,
chemical or biological warheads. They are working to develop
more
accurate
and longer range missiles that will allow them to threaten more
than
just their
immediate neighbours.”
•
“Several
countries that promised not to acquire nuclear weapons are trying
to
build them;
North Korea has probably already succeeded.”
•
“There are
similar problems over chemical weapons … Saddam Hussein
used
chemical
weapons … as recently as the late 1980s.”
•
“Some
countries also have or wish to acquire, biological weapons,
some
of which
have the potential to cause casualties on the same scale
as
nuclear weapons.”
117
Minute
Scarlett to Manning, 6 March 2002, ‘WMD Programmes of Concern –
Unclassified’ attaching
Paper, ‘WMD
Programmes of Concern’.
59