Introduction
and key findings ............................................................................................
8
The UK’s
assessment of Iraq’s WMD capabilities pre-9/11 ..............................................
9
The legacy
of the 1990s .............................................................................................
9
The UK’s
assessment of Iraq’s WMD 2000 to 2001 .................................................
12
JIC
Assessment, 19 April 2000: ‘Iraq: Chemical and Biological
Weapons
Programmes’ ......................................................................................................
12
JIC
Assessment, 1 December 2000 ...................................................................
16
JIC
Assessment, 9 February 2001: ‘Long Range Ballistic Missile
Threat’ .........
21
JIC
Assessment, 10 May 2001 ...........................................................................
24
Wider
concerns about proliferation and terrorist use of
WMD ........................................
30
Assessment
of Iraq’s WMD capability after 9/11 .............................................................
41
November to
December 2001 ...................................................................................
41
The
decision to produce a dossier covering Iraq, Iran, North Korea
and Libya .......
45
JIC
Assessment, 27 February 2002: ‘Iraq: Saddam Under the
Spotlight’ .................
47
Public
statements by Mr Blair and Mr Straw .............................................................
54
Draft ‘WMD
Programmes of Concern’ paper, 6 March 2002 ..............................
59
Cabinet, 7
March 2002 .......................................................................................
62
Cabinet
Office, ‘Iraq: Options Paper’, 8 March 2002 ..........................................
62
JIC Current
Intelligence Group Assessment, 15 March 2002 ...................................
64
Draft ‘WMD
Programmes of Concern’ paper, 15 March 2002 ..................................
73
Decision to
produce a dossier focused on Iraq ...............................................................
77
Proposal
for a media strategy to prepare opinion for possible
military action ..........
77
Decisions
to focus the dossier on Iraq but to postpone
publication ..........................
79
Mr Hoon’s
and Mr Straw’s advice for Mr Blair, March
2002 ......................................
87
MOD
consideration of Iraq’s ability to acquire a nuclear
capability ..........................
88
Development
of the Iraq dossier, April to July 2002 ........................................................
94
Revision of
the estimates of unaccounted for Iraqi material .....................................
94
The Iraq
dossier ........................................................................................................
97
Conclusions ..................................................................................................................
109
7