The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
180.
In Sir
Roderic’s view, the “only way we are now likely to get them [the
Russians]
on board
would be to drop the authorisation for war”. The Russians were
“convinced that
the
Americans are going to attack, come what may”.
181.
Sir David
Manning put the email to Mr Blair on 11 March, commenting:
“Good Rod
Lyne
analysis on Putin/Iraq.”62
182.
Mr Blair
spoke to President Putin who was ready to look for a way forward
but
made it
clear that Russia could not accept any proposition which looked
like a “green
183.
President
Putin told Mr Blair that, following the visit to Baghdad by
the Speaker of
the Russian
Parliament, there were grounds to believe that Saddam Hussein
understood
the
necessity for disarmament, and had opted for the maximum
co-operation with the
UN
inspectors.
184.
President
Putin also said that the Iraqis had been robust and confident and
were
prepared to
resist the Coalition; and that an initial military action might be
over quickly
but Iraq
was a big country and guerrilla warfare could continue for some
time.
185.
Mr José
Maria Aznar, the Spanish Prime Minister, told Mr Blair that he
would
not favour
putting the resolution to a vote without a guarantee of
success.
186.
In a
conversation with Mr Aznar, Mr Blair argued that the
Spanish proposal for
a simple
resolution needed to be combined with tests for Saddam
Hussein.64
187.
Mr Aznar
identified a number of concerns about the risks with the approach,
but he
agreed to
try. He was also reported to have said that without a guaranteed
win, he would
not favour
putting the resolution to a vote.
188.
Mr Blair
also spoke to:
•
Mr Silvio
Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister,66
and
•
Mr Göran
Persson, the Swedish Prime Minister,67
to seek
support for his approach.
189.
Mr Blair
warned Mr Annan that the US timeframe was “days not weeks” and
it
was in “no
mood to negotiate further”.
62
Manuscript
comment Manning to PM, 11 March 2003, on Email Lyne to Ricketts, 10
March 2003,
‘Iraq/Russia’.
63
Letter
Cannon to Owen, 11 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Conversation
with Putin, 11 March’.
64
Letter
Cannon to Owen, 11 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Conversation
with Aznar, 11 March’.
65
Letter
Cannon to Owen, 11 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Conversation
with President of Pakistan,
11
March’.
66
Letter
Rycroft to Owen, ‘Prime Minister’s Conversation with Berlusconi, 11
March’.
67
Letter
Lloyd to Owen, 11 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Conversation
with Persson’.
434