3.7 |
Development of UK strategy and options, 1 February to 7 March
2003
807.
A ‘Vision for
Iraq and the Iraqi People’ was eventually agreed, and
issued
at the Azores
Summit on 16 March 2003 (see Section 3.8).
At the
request off the FCO the JIC produced an Assessment on 26 February
of how
the Iraqi
regime would respond in northern Iraq to a Coalition attack; the
likely attitudes
and actions
of Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds; and the prospects for northern
Iraq
post‑Saddam
Hussein.245
The
Assessment highlighted the short and longer-term risks
of action
in northern Iraq.
The JIC
specifically asked Mr John Scarlett, the Chairman, to draw the
Assessment
to the attention
of Mr Blair, Mr Straw and Mr Hoon.246
He wrote
that it noted:
•
“The continued
presence of significant military forces in the North and
the
possibility
that they were equipped with WMD.”
•
“The potential
for fighting between Turkish and Kurdish forces.”
•
“The potential
for Iranian involvement”.
Mr Blair
commented: “I need to talk on this.”247
808.
Mr Blair
told Cabinet on 27 February that:
•
he would
continue to push for a further Security Council
resolution;
•
humanitarian
and reconstruction planning needed to take “centre
stage”,
and he
would pursue that with President Bush in the coming
days;
•
decisions
had to be made; and
•
failure to
achieve a second resolution would reinforce the
unilateralists
in the
US Administration.
809.
Mr Campbell
wrote in his diaries that Mr Blair had held a meeting
with
Mr John
Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, and Mr Straw, “at which
we went over
the
distinct possibility of no second resolution because the majority
was not there for
it”.248
Mr Blair
“knew that meant real problems, but he remained determined on
this,
and convinced
it was the right course”.
810.
Mr Straw
told Cabinet that the draft resolution could be put to the vote in
the week
after the 7
March discussion of Dr Blix’s and Dr ElBaradei’s reports
in the Security
245
JIC
Assessment, 26 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Prospects in the
North’.
246
Minute
Scarlett to Rycroft, 27 February 2003, ‘JIC Assessment: Iraq:
Prospects in the North’.
247
Manuscript
comment Blair to Rycroft on Minute
Scarlett to Rycroft, 27 February 2003,
‘JIC Assessment:
Iraq:
Prospects in the North’.
248
Campbell A
& Hagerty B. The
Alastair Campbell Diaries. Volume 4. The Burden of
Power:
Countdown to
Iraq. Hutchinson,
2012.
323