3.3 |
Development of UK strategy and options,
April to July 2002
313.
Sir Richard
reported that he was told a US “decision had already been taken
–
the question
was only how and when”.
314.
Sir Richard
also reported that, in a separate discussion with a senior US
official,
he had been
told that the US Administration’s intention was to set the
threshold on UN
weapons
inspections so high that Iraq would not be able to hold up US
policy.
315.
Sir David
Manning drew Mr Blair’s attention to a report of Sir Richard
Dearlove’s
meetings in
Washington, commenting:
“Not much
doubt here that the Administration is bent on action soon, and
convincing
itself that
it has strong strategic, as well as a historical duty to
act.
“Our views
on links between Iraq, terrorism and development of WMD are
different
from
Condi’s: not proven at best …
…
“C [Sir
Richard Dearlove] will be able to give the full picture
tomorrow.”129
316.
Mr Powell
commented: “Strengthens the need for and urgency of your note
to
317.
MOD
officials privately expressed strong reservations about military
action
to Mr Hoon,
stating that there was no objective justification for a
pre-emptive
attack
either now or in the immediate future.
318.
Mr Hoon was
advised that the legal framework could constrain the
UK’s
ability to
support US action.
319.
In preparation
for the meeting on 23 July, Mr Desmond Bowen, MOD
Director
General
Operational Policy, advised Mr Hoon that the meeting would discuss
the
Cabinet
Office paper of 19 July, and the agenda was expected to
cover:
•
US planning
and timescales;
•
the
objectives of any military action;
•
the
strategic policy framework;
•
the
potential UK contribution; and
•
an
information campaign.131
320.
Mr Bowen
advised that it was “still too early to be definitive” about
whether the US
had a
winning military concept; but that it was “likely” that the answer
to that question
129
Minute
Manning to Prime Minister, 22 July 2002, ‘Iraq’.
130
Manuscript
comment Powell on Minute Manning to Prime Minister, 22 July 2002,
‘Iraq’.
131
Minute
Bowen to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 22 July 2002, ‘Iraq: Meeting
with the Prime Minister’.
55