3.2 |
Development of UK strategy and options, January to April 2002 –
“axis of evil” to Crawford
261.
The Cabinet
Office paper described the UK’s policy objectives on Iraq
as:
“Within our
objectives of preserving peace and stability in the Gulf and
ensuring
energy
security, our current objectives towards Iraq are:
•
the
reintegration of a law-abiding Iraq, which does not possess WMD
or
threaten
its neighbours, into the international community. Implicitly,
this
cannot
occur with Saddam in power; and
•
hence as
the least worst option, we have supported containment of Iraq,
by
constraining
Saddam’s ability to re-arm or build up WMD and to threaten
his
neighbours.
Subsidiary
objectives are:
•
preserving
the territorial integrity of Iraq;
•
improving
the humanitarian situation of the Iraqi people;
•
protecting
the Kurds in northern Iraq;
•
sustaining
UK/US co-operation, including, if necessary, by
moderating
US policy;
and
•
maintaining
the credibility and authority of the Security
Council.”94
262.
The Cabinet
Office paper provided an analysis, drawing on recent
JIC
Assessments,
of the existing policy of containment, which it described as having
been
“partially
successful”. The policy had:
•
effectively
frozen Iraq’s nuclear programme;
•
prevented
Iraq from rebuilding its conventional arsenal to pre-Gulf war
levels;
•
severely
restricted Iraq’s ballistic missile programmes;
•
hindered
Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons programmes;
•
given some
protection to the Kurds and the Shia through the operation of
the
No-Fly
Zones; and
•
Saddam was
not seriously threatening his neighbours.95
263.
Despite
containment, there was considerable oil and other smuggling;
Saddam
Hussein led
a brutal regime and provided a rallying point for anti-western
sentiment,
which was a
cause of instability.
264.
Incontrovertible
proof of large-scale activity would be needed to
convince
the
Permanent Five and the majority of the Security Council that Iraq
was in
breach of
its obligations on WMD and ballistic missiles.
94
Paper
Cabinet Office, 8 March 2002, ‘Iraq: Options Paper’.
95
Paper
Cabinet Office, 8 March 2002, ‘Iraq: Options Paper’.
433