The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
19.
UK policy
towards Iraq was formally reviewed and agreed by the Defence
and
Overseas
Policy Committee (DOP) in May 1999. The UK’s policy objectives
towards Iraq
were
defined as:
“… in the
short term, to reduce the threat Saddam [Hussein] poses to the
region
including
by eliminating his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programmes;
and,
in the
longer term, to reintegrate a territorially intact Iraq as a
law-abiding member of
the
international community.”8
20.
The policy of
containment was seen as the “only viable way” to pursue
those
objectives.
A “policy of trying to topple Saddam would command no useful
international
support”.
Iraq was unlikely to accept the package immediately but “might be
persuaded
to
acquiesce eventually”.
21.
After
prolonged discussion about the way ahead, the UN Security Council
adopted
resolution
1284 in December 1999, although France, Russia and China
abstained.9
22.
The resolution
established:
•
a new
inspectorate, the United Nations Monitoring and Verification
Commission
(UNMOVIC),
which Dr Hans Blix was subsequently appointed to lead;
•
a timetable
to identify and agree a work programme; and
•
the
principle that if the inspectors reported co-operation in key
areas, that would
lead to the
suspension of economic sanctions.10
23.
Iraq refused
to accept the provisions of resolution 1284, including the
re-admission
of weapons
inspectors. Concerns about Iraq’s activities in the absence of
inspectors
increased.
24.
The US
Presidential election in November 2000 prompted a further UK review
of
the
operation of the containment policy. There were concerns about how
long the policy
could be
sustained and what it could achieve. That is addressed in detail in
Section 1.2.
25.
A JIC
Assessment in October 2000, which assessed the prospects for Iraq
after the
death of
Saddam Hussein, judged:
•
There was
“a significant risk of a period of violent
factional and internecine
strife
amongst the
Sunni elite followed by the emergence of a new
military
leader”.
•
“If the
regime appeared weakened, the Kurds
would be
likely to try to re-
establish
control of the northern towns of Mosul and Kirkuk. But they
would
8
Joint
Memorandum by the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth
Affairs and the Secretary of
State for
Defence, 17 May 1999, ‘Iraq: Future Strategy’.
9
UN Security
Council Press Release, 17 December 1999, Security
Council Establishes New Monitoring
Commission For
Iraq Adopting Resolution 1284 (1999) By Vote of 11-0-4
(SC/6775).
10
UN Security
Council, ‘4084th Meeting Friday 17 December 1999’
(S/PV.4084).
316