17 | Civilian casualties

(the end of the period covered by this Inquiry) 523 non‑Iraqi civilians had been killed

in Iraq.162 The Index did not offer any breakdown of that total.

261. The ICCC reported 464 contractors killed in Iraq by October 2009, of whom it

identified 45 as British.163 Of those, the ICCC identified 37 as security contractors or

security guards.

262. The US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) reported

in July 2012 that 321 US civilians had died during Operation Iraqi Freedom from

1 May 2003 (the end of major combat operations) to 31 August 2010.164

263. The Committee to Protect Journalists recorded that 191 Iraqi and international

journalists and other media workers were killed in Iraq between 19 March 2003 and

October 2009 (the end of the period covered by this Inquiry).165

264. In a series of Assessments in the second half of 2002, the Joint Intelligence

Committee identified the possibility of significant civilian casualties in the event of a

Coalition attack on Iraq, in particular as a result of Iraqi use of chemical and biological

weapons, the implementation of a scorched earth policy, and disorder after the end of

major combat operations.

265. The MOD made only a broad estimate of direct civilian casualties arising from an

attack on Iraq, based on previous operations.

266. In the months before the invasion, Mr Blair emphasised the need to minimise the

number of civilian casualties arising from an invasion of Iraq. He repeatedly asked the

MOD for details on the accuracy of the weapons that the UK would use, the targeting

policy and guidelines, and the estimated number of civilian casualties.

267. Sections 6.1 and 6.2 consider the MOD’s responses, which offered

reassurance based on the tight targeting procedures governing the air campaign.

Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, Chief of the Defence Staff, advised Mr Blair on 25 February

2003 that civilian casualties were likely to be in the “low hundreds”.166

268. In his public statements before the invasion, Mr Blair suggested that the number

of civilians who would be killed in any conflict should be set in the context of the number

of civilians who had been killed by Saddam Hussein’s regime or were dying as a result

of its policies. On the eve of the invasion, Mr Blair stated that Saddam Hussein “will

162 The Brookings Institution, 13 October 2009, Iraq Index.

163 Iraq Coalition Casualty Count website.

164 Report SIGIR, July 2012, The human toll of reconstruction and stabilization during Iraqi Freedom.

165 Committee to Protect Journalists website.

166 Letter Cannon to Owen, 25 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Meeting with General Franks’.

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