Executive
Summary
759.
ACM Stirrup’s
acceptance that the “law of diminishing returns” was “now
firmly
in play”
and that there was “an increasing risk” that UK forces would
“become part of
the problem,
rather than the solution” had some validity: it was clear from
accounts
of the
situation in Basra that UK forces were not preventing a steady
decline in
security. ACM
Stirrup was also right to advise Dr Reid that the MNF in Iraq
faced a
“multifaceted”,
sophisticated and dangerous enemy; that serious issues
remained
in Basra
(militia activity, poor governance, insecurity); and that it was
possible the
UK would
be accused of strategic failure.
760.
The
established policy was that UK forces would withdraw as the
capabilities of
the ISF
increased until responsibility could be handed over to the Iraqi
Government.
ACM
Stirrup’s proposed remedy of continued drawdown and managing public
opinion
did not
mitigate the risk of strategic failure he described.
761.
In the summer
of 2006, in recognition of the need to stabilise Basra and
prepare
it for
transition to Iraqi control, the UK developed the Basra Security
Plan, “a plan to
improve
Basra through operations, high impact reconstruction and SSR
[Security Sector
Reform] ...
lasting for up to six months”.267
The
military element of the plan became
known as
Operation SALAMANCA and included operations against militia
groups.
762.
In August
2006, ACM Stirrup was asked to give direction on both seeking US
help
for Op
SALAMANCA and the possibility of deploying UK forces to support US
operations
outside
MND(SE).
763.
While ACM
Stirrup stressed the importance of senior Iraqi political
support
if Op SALAMANCA
was to be a success, Lieutenant General Nicholas
Houghton,
the Senior
British Military Representative – Iraq, indicated a concern that
even with
US support
the capabilities available in MND(SE) might not be sufficient
successfully
to deliver
Op SALAMANCA.
764.
ACM Stirrup
directed that it was acceptable for the UK to make use of
US
enablers,
such as aviation, in MND(SE), but that, in general, commitments in
MND(SE)
were to be
met by existing MND(SE) personnel (including contractors) and any
shortfalls
were to be
identified and considered appropriately.
765.
ACM Stirrup
also directed that the deployment of UK troops to
Multi‑National
Division
(Centre South):
“...
crossed a clear policy ‘red line’ and seemed counter‑intuitive,
given that
consideration
was also being given to obtaining US forces for MND(SE). The
UK
needed to
draw down its force levels as soon as practicable, both in
MND(SE)
267
Minute
Burke‑Davies to APS/Secretary of State [MOD], 24 August 2006,
‘Iraq: Op SALAMANCA’.
268
Minutes, 2
August 2006, Chiefs of Staff meeting.
105