The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
•
a mid-level
option (between about 1,800 and 2,200); and
•
zero forces
in southern Iraq.
803.
Lt Gen Wall
told the ISG that any drawdown below a critical mass of 2,800
should
only be a
short-term interim measure on the way to zero in order to reduce
the period
of high
vulnerability for personnel. From a military perspective, he
observed that a
decision on
post-November 2008 force levels did not need to be taken until the
summer.
Mr McDonald
acknowledged this, but also noted that the way ahead would
need
to be clear
by late March in order to inform Ministerial decisions on
Afghanistan.
804.
On 18
February, Lt Gen Rollo reported that the Provincial Powers Law set
out the
balance
between the central and provincial authorities that would apply
following the
next
provincial election.389
He
wrote:
“The key
differences to the current arrangement are the strengthening of
Governors’
control
over provincial security forces and the arrangements for dismissing
a
Governor
(making it easier for a Provincial Council to do so, but also
giving the
Prime
Minister and the Council of Representatives a potential role in the
process).
Whether
this will be sufficient to see off a push for greater federalism
when the
Regions law
takes effect in April remains to be seen.”
805.
The Provincial
Powers Law directed that an Elections Law be passed
within
90 days
and provincial elections be held not later than 1 October. Lt Gen
Rollo observed
that this
would be “challenging” but that the UN’s view was that “the date
should be
technically
possible”.
806.
Lt Gen Rollo
recorded that the Amnesty Law was likely to allow a
significant
number of
those convicted of less serious offences, or who had never been
charged,
to be
released from detention. Those convicted of serious crimes were
excluded.
Lt Gen Rollo
observed that the law was a “positive move”, though much would
depend
on how it
was administered, and in particular on the reintegration of former
detainees.
807.
Lt Gen Rollo
commented it was:
“…
difficult to overestimate the importance of this week’s political
events. It commits
Iraq to
provincial elections in the autumn, offering the prospect of
bringing in both
Sunni and
Shia groups who failed to vote in 2005, and decisively turning
Iraq’s
struggle
for power onto a political path. Conversely, it also offers the
prospect of
increased
instability if the armed wings of political parties compete to
influence
results …
These events are also, of course, the context for decisions on the
timing
and pace of
future troop drawdown.”
808.
Mr Miliband
sent a personal message of congratulations to Speaker
Mahmoud
Mashhadani
of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, which was delivered in
person by
389
Minute
Rollo to CDS, 18 February 2008, ‘SBMR-I’s Weekly Report (288) 17
Feb 08’.
330