9.5 |
June 2006 to 27 June 2007
728.
On 15 April,
Lt Gen Lamb reported encouraging signs of progress
elsewhere
in Iraq:
•
significant
increases in the volume of weapon and IED caches found
in
Multi‑National
Division (West), indicating a marked improvement in local
tribes’
co‑operation;
•
economic
development in Baghdad, despite the continuing security
difficulties;
and
•
a growing
number of groups that were prepared to tackle their
differences
through
dialogue rather than violence.399
729.
In Basra, he
considered the MNF‑I were “seeing a subtle shift amongst the
wider
Sadrist
trend and with it the tensions within JAM”.
730.
On Iran, Lt
Gen Lamb wrote:
“What is
clear as we continue to ‘stress’ the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary
Guard
Corps],
Quds Force and their surrogates inside Iraq is that we are
unpicking what
has been a
slow build plan of active interference and Iranian control that set
out to
humiliate
the coalition, especially the US and UK, kill its Forces and
intimidate or buy
its way
into positions of superior influence and power. This plan is for
the first time
being
seriously challenged and consequently damaged … Our current
actions …
intend to
remove the current imbalance of interference and control of Iran
within
Iraq …
“Iranian
oil prices, as a result of an unsettled market due to Iraq’s
problems, are
resulting
in an additional revenue to Iran of around $30‑$40 million per day
– funding
terrorism
in Iraq might seem a good investment. Regrettably, the same would
be true
for any
other oil selling nation in the neighbourhood.”
731.
In response to
a call at Friday prayers the previous week, a
demonstration
against
Governor Waili took place in Basra on 16 April.400
Despite the
prior involvement
of senior
Baghdad politicians in planning the demonstration, the fear of
unrest was
sufficient
for Prime Minister Maliki to order that official approval for the
demonstration
be
withdrawn. It nonetheless went ahead (peacefully) on 16 April,
with several thousand
demonstrators,
including a “prominent JAM presence”. Mr Jones
commented:
“This
doesn’t make it any easier to work out what outcome we would like.
Our ability
to pick
winners under the circumstances is extremely circumscribed (and
would in
any case be
the kiss of death for our favoured candidate). Nor will we ever be
able
to perform
the complex acts of juggling which will be required to keep the
three blocs
satisfactorily
in play for an accommodation to be found. But we can continue
to
encourage
the politicians to go down the path of peaceful discussion within
the law;
399
Minute Lamb
to CDS, 15 April 2007, ‘SBMR‑I Weekly Report (251) 15 Apr
07’.
400
Letter
Jones to Aldred, 19 April 2007, ‘Basra: Weekly
Report’.
137