The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
circulated
to senior officials and departments twice a day.103
The evening
updates
included a
report on the state of the oil market, and on changes to UK retail
petrol and
diesel
prices.
196.
The price of
oil quickly stabilised.
197.
The COBR
evening update for 18 March reported that prices for Brent crude
had
fallen to
around US$27 a barrel, following heavy selling in expectation of a
short war.104
The IEA was
monitoring the market, and stood ready to release stocks if
necessary.
198.
The MOD
informed No.10 on 23 March, in its first report to No.10 on the
progress
of the
military campaign, that all the southern oilfields were now “secure
and under
199.
The MOD
informed No.10 on 25 March that “Iraqi attempted sabotage [of
the
southern
oilfields] has been unsuccessful”.106
200.
The Cabinet
discussed the humanitarian situation in Iraq on 27
March.107
Mr Hoon
said that
securing Iraq’s essential economic infrastructure had been achieved
through
seizing the
southern oilfields almost intact. The sooner the oil could flow
again, the
sooner the
profits could be used for the Iraqi people.
201.
COBR reported
on 10 April that oil prices continued to fluctuate around US$25
a
barrel.108
Market
attention was turning away from day-to-day developments in Iraq
and
towards
“underlying fundamentals”. The IEA estimated that despite
disruption to Iraqi
and
Nigerian oil supplies, global oil production had increased by 1
percent between
February
and March.
202.
The COBR
evening update for 12 April reported that the Kirkuk oilfields had
been
seized
“almost entirely intact”.109
203.
The final
meeting of the COBR (Iraq) Group was held on 23
April.110
Mr Drummond
reported
that the impression from that meeting was of “returning normality”,
including
with the
stabilisation of the oil price at around US$25 a barrel and UK fuel
prices starting
to come
down.
103
Minute
Cabinet Office [junior official] to Manning, ‘Iraq: COBR Round Up
of Key Events – 18 March’;
Minute
Cabinet Office [junior official] to Manning, ‘Iraq: COBR Round Up
of Key Events – 22 April’.
104
Minute
Cabinet Office [junior official] to Manning, 18 March 2003, ‘Iraq:
COBR Round Up of Key Events
– 18
March’.
105
Letter
Watkins to Manning, 23 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Progress of Military
Campaign’ attaching Report,
[undated],
‘Iraq: Progress of Military Campaign’.
106
Letter
Watkins to Rycroft, 25 March 2003, ‘Iraq: Military Campaign’
attaching Report, [undated],
‘Iraq:
Campaign Achievements (as at 25 March 2003)’.
107
Cabinet
Conclusions, 27 March 2003.
108
Minute
Cabinet Office [junior official] to Manning, 10 April 2003, ‘Iraq:
COBR Round Up of Key Events –
10
April’.
109
Minute Dodd
to Manning, 12 April 2003, ‘Iraq: COBR Round Up of Key Events – 12
April’.
110
Minute
Drummond to Manning, 24 April 2003, ‘COBR(Iraq)’.
404