The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
36.
The paper
listed likely immediate, medium-term and long-term military
post-conflict
tasks. The
immediate (up to six months) tasks included:
“•
assist in
restoration of key infrastructure elements;
•
secure
oilfields and oil distribution/refining
infrastructure.”
37.
The
medium-term (six months to two years) tasks included:
“•
begin
transfer [of] security of oilfields and production facilities to
Iraqi forces.”
38.
The paper was
revised five times between June and December 2002.
The December
2002 version of the paper replaced the tasks listed above with
a
single
“Military Line of Operation” for infrastructure security, which
extended into
39.
At his
request, Mr Blair received a pack of reading material on Iraq
at the beginning
of August
2002.
40.
The reading
pack included a January 2002 DIS report on Iraq’s
infrastructure.20
The report
had been produced in response to the ongoing requirement on DIS
to
maintain
and update information to support possible future military
operations.
41.
The DIS report
stated that Iraq’s oil and gas industry had suffered
substantial
damage
during the Iran/Iraq and Gulf wars, and recovery had been slow. A
“recent
UN report”
had assessed that the general state of the Iraqi oil industry had
declined
seriously
over the previous 18 months and that urgent measures were needed to
avoid
further
deterioration of oil wells and the petroleum infrastructure. Of the
12 oil refineries
in Iraq,
only three were operational.
42.
An FCO
Economic Adviser produced an assessment of short- and
long-term
economic
consequences of military action for the region and for Iraq on 29
August.21
The
assessment identified a number of potential short-term consequences
of military
action
including a rise in oil prices and the disruption of the OFF
programme.
43.
Copies of the
assessment were sent to FCO officials and, separately, to
TPUK.
The Inquiry
has seen no indication that copies were sent to other
departments.
44.
A Treasury
official sent Mr Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the
Exchequer, a paper
on the
global, regional and local (Iraqi) economic impact of war in Iraq
on 6 September.22
19
Paper
[SPG], 13 December 2002, ‘UK Military Strategic Thinking on
Iraq’.
20
Paper DIS,
18 January 2002, ‘Infrastructure Briefing Memorandum:
Iraq’.
21
Minute FCO
[junior official] to Gray, 29 August 2002, ‘Iraq: Economic Issues
Raised by Military Action
and Regime
Change’ attaching Paper, [undated], ‘Regional Economic Consequences
of Military Action
against
Iraq’.
22
Email
Treasury [junior official] to Bowman, 6 September 2002, ‘What would
be the economic impact of
a war in
Iraq?’ attaching Paper Treasury, September 2002, ‘What would be the
economic impact of war
in Iraq?’.
380