The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
21.
Mr Blair
sent a minute to Mr Jonathan Powell, his Chief of Staff, on 17
March setting
out three
points in response to the briefing papers that he had
received:
“(1) In all
my papers I do not have a proper worked-out strategy on how we
would
do it. The
US do not either, but before I go [to Crawford], I need to be able
to
provide
them with a far more intelligent and detailed analysis of a game
plan …
(2) The
persuasion job on this seems very tough …
(3) Oil
prices. This is my big domestic worry. We must concert with the US
to get
action from
others to push the price back down. Higher petrol prices really
might
A copy of
the minute was sent to Sir David Manning, Mr Blair’s
Foreign Policy Adviser
and Head of
the Overseas and Defence Secretariat (OD Sec) in the Cabinet
Office.
22.
Asked to
clarify what “it” was that required a proper worked-out strategy,
Mr Blair
told the
Inquiry: “How we would either get Saddam to cease being a threat
peacefully
or to
get him out by force.”12
23.
Mr Michael
Arthur, FCO Economic Director, sent Sir David a paper on
the economic
effects of
military action against Iraq on 26 March.13
Mr Arthur
assessed that:
“Iraq
produces c2.5m bpd, a bit over 3 percent of world supply. Military
action may
well lead
to a reduction or cut-off in its exports either directly or by way
of Iraqi
retaliation.
“There is
likely to be an immediate spike in oil prices … provided the
conflict does
not spill
over into the Gulf and threaten the flow of supplies through the
Straits of
Hormuz –
the spike could be very short-lived.”
24.
A protracted,
regional conflict would pose a more serious threat to oil prices
and
the world
economy.
25.
The paper also
highlighted the economic consequences for Iraq’s
neighbours,
particularly
Jordan.
26.
Mr John
Scarlett, the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC),
responded
to a
request from Sir David for an update on Iraq’s oil production,
the importance of oil
revenue to
the Iraqi regime, and the effect of a halt in Iraqi oil exports on
the world oil
11
Minute
Prime Minister to Powell, 17 March 2002, ‘Iraq’.
12
Public
hearing, 21 January 2011, page 43.
13
Letter
Arthur to Manning, 26 March 2002, ‘Iraq: Back Pocket
Economics’.
14
Minute
Scarlett to Manning, 4 April 2002, ‘Iraq: Oil’.
378