8 | The
invasion
699.
The DIS
produced an assessment of Basra, Maysan, Dhi Qar, Muthanna
and
Wasit
provinces on 28 April.395
The paper
stated that:
•
the
overwhelming majority of tribes welcomed the overthrow of
Saddam
Hussein,
but some remained suspicious of Coalition intentions;
•
there was
potential for inter-tribal conflict between pro- and anti-regime
tribes,
but
traditional tribal enmity in the UK AOR was “unlikely to be
destabilising”;
•
a number of
religious leaders were vying for influence over the Shia
population,
although
most local clerics in the UK AOR were believed to be followers
of
Grand
Ayatollah al-Sistani;
•
there was
strong evidence that Iranian-backed groups were attempting
to
increase
their influence in southern Iraq; and
•
further
outbreaks of violence were likely as Shia factions attempted to
gain
political
and social influence.
700.
The DIS
advised that there was insufficient detail available for a complete
picture
of Iraq
infrastructure. It assessed that:
•
Four
airfields in the UK AOR, including Basra Airport, were being
cleared of
obstructions;
the remaining 16 would require “varying but significant effort”
to
restore
full operating capability.
•
Major
clearance operations were needed in the Shatt al-Arab waterway
before
Basra would
be available for major port operations.
•
Roads were
“generally in good condition”.
•
There were
no reports of damage to railways.
•
Telecommunications
and broadcasting networks were in “various stages of
degradation”.
•
Little
southern oil infrastructure had been damaged during Op TELIC, but
most
facilities
had ground to a halt.
•
Damage
during the 1991 Gulf Conflict and subsequent lack of maintenance
had
reduced
electricity generation and transmission to 40–50 percent of
capacity.
Power cuts
continued to be “widespread and prolonged”. There might
be
additional
problems with transmission caused by conflict damage to power
lines.
•
The water
and sewerage system had been severely degraded by the
Gulf
Conflict,
poor maintenance and problems caused by sanctions; 60 percent
of
the water
distribution system for Basra had been restored, but sewage
treatment
plants were
“barely functioning”. It was doubtful that a reliable service could
be
restored
without “extensive investment of money, time and
equipment”.
395
Minute
PS/CDI to APS/SofS [MOD], 28 April 2003, ‘A Study of the Provinces
within the UK AOR’
attaching
Paper [unattributed], 28 April 2003, ‘General Assessment of
Provinces within UK AOR’.
123