The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
of basic
services (e.g. water) and violence. But it is a widely accepted
assumption
that
employment and economic well-being will increase support for the
Government
and a pool
of un- and under-employed men will pose a security
risk.”
1084.
The Annotated
Agenda for the AHMGIR meeting stated that delays to
PMO
mobilisation
raised the risk of a shortfall in funding for reconstruction over
the summer.633
The US
remained confident that PMO contractors would deploy to Basra
shortly; the UK
believed
that was optimistic.
1085.
The AHMGIR
noted the DFID paper, and agreed that the UK should lobby the
US
to ensure
that IRRF2 funds flowed to the South and to agree additional
funding for quick
1086.
Mr Richmond
reported on 17 June that the threat to staff in Baghdad was at
its
highest
level since April 2003.635
Journeys
outside the Green Zone were only being
approved
under exceptional circumstances, seriously handicapping operational
capacity
(although
work to support the Prime Minister’s Office and some other
programmes were
continuing).
He had asked all staff who were not staying beyond 30 June to leave
by
21
June.
1087.
Mr Nixon
reported on the same day that the security situation in the South
had
improved
since April, and was generally quiet.636
1088.
Mr Richmond
reported separately, also on the same day, that attacks on
oil
pipelines
continued despite enhanced security measures, with four major
attacks in
the past
few days.637
There were
simply not enough resources to protect Iraq’s oil
infrastructure
against determined insurgents with expertise.
1089.
Mr Hoon
told the 17 June meeting of the AHMGIR that UK forces in Maysan
were
sustaining
22 percent casualties.638
That could
not continue indefinitely, and root causes
such as
unemployment needed to be examined.
1090.
Mr Benn
told the meeting that DFID continued to look at the scope for
targeting
factors
that contributed to insecurity, such as unemployment. DFID was also
looking
flexibly at
how it provided assistance. One option was to fund provincial
authorities
directly
(although there were clearly risks, including that such funding
might be diverted).
1091.
On 21 June,
Mr Richmond reported the headline results of a
CPA-commissioned
poll
conducted by Oxford Research International between 19 May and 14
June.639
The
633 Annotated
Agenda, 17 June 2004, Ad Hoc Group on Iraq Rehabilitation
meeting.
634
Minutes, 17
June 2004, Ad Hoc Group on Iraq Rehabilitation
meeting.
635
Telegram
328 IraqRep to FCO London, 17 June 2004, ‘Iraq: Security of
Personnel’.
636
Telegram 67
Basra to FCO London, 17 June 2004, ‘Iraq: Security of Personnel in
the South’.
637
Telegram
329 IraqRep to FCO London, 17 June 2004, ‘Iraq: Oil Infrastructure
Attacks’.
638
Minutes, 17
June 2004, Ad Hoc Ministerial Group on Iraq Rehabilitation
meeting.
639
Telegram
341 IraqRep to FCO London, 21 June 2004, ‘Iraq: New Polling
Data’.
188