16.4 |
Conclusions: Service Personnel
19.
In addition to
increasing the pressure on Service Personnel, the decision to
deploy a
second
medium scale force increased the pressure on the MOD’s medical,
welfare and
investigative
systems, and in particular on:
•
the air
bridge between Iraq and the UK;
•
Selly Oak
hospital;
•
Headley
Court and other rehabilitation facilities; and
•
the Army’s
capacity to investigate fatalities and support bereaved
families.
20.
It also
increased the pressure on the coronial system.
21.
From 2006, the
efforts of the MOD and the Government would increasingly
be
focused on
addressing those pressures.
22.
The MOD should
have been aware of the potential impacts on its medical,
welfare
and
investigative systems, and made the necessary contingency plans to
increase
their
capacity.
23.
Op TELIC was
the first major military operation after the closure of the
military
hospitals
in the 1990s and therefore the first test of the new medical
arrangements.
Under the
new arrangements, many medical Service Personnel (including a
large
number of
Reservists) were deployed from NHS Trusts for operations in Iraq
and
Afghanistan,
and military casualties were treated in NHS Trusts.
24.
In early
September 2002, the MOD estimated that between 31 and 48
Service
Personnel
would be killed in action during the initial combat phase of
operations of an
attack on
Iraq, and that between 157 and 241 Service Personnel would be
admitted
to Role 3
hospitals6
(figures
exclude possible casualties from chemical and
biological
warfare).
The MOD regularly updated its casualty estimates as the military
plan
developed.
The estimates did not consider casualties beyond the initial
combat
phase of
operations.
25.
The Chiefs of
Staff concluded on 5 February 2003 that a Casualty Estimate
paper
including
estimated casualty figures, which had been produced by the MOD,
would need
to be shown
to Ministers before any decision to commit UK troops was
made.
26.
In response to
a question from Mr Blair on the possible number of casualties
arising
from an
attack on Iraq, the MOD advised No.10 on 24 February that there
would be
between 30
and 60 British and between 500 and 1,200 Iraqi “land battle”
fatalities.7
6
Role 3
(Echelon 3) medical support is generally provided at field
hospitals and on hospital ships.
7
Letter
Watkins to Rycroft, 24 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Political and Military
Questions’.
157